National Industry Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets, and Agglomeration...
AbstractUsing a broad set of national industry trade shocks, I employ a novel approach to estimate agglomeration effects by exploiting within industry variation in indirect exposure to the other local...
View ArticleA Quantitative Theory of Political Transitions
AbstractWe develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the beliefs of disenfranchised citizens play a key role in determining...
View ArticleExchange rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
AbstractWe study the problem of a monetary authority pursuing an exchange rate policy that is inconsistent with interest rate parity because of a binding zero lower bound constraint. The resulting...
View ArticleThe Production of Information in an Online World
AbstractNews production requires investment, and competitors’ ability to appropriate a story may reduce a media’s incentives to provide original content. Yet, there is little legal protection of...
View ArticleHow Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel
AbstractWe document the transmission of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to the real economy using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data and an identification strategy based on...
View ArticleAmbiguous Policy Announcements
AbstractWe study the effects of monetary announcements when agents face Knightian uncertainty about the commitment capacity of the monetary authority. Households are ambiguity-averse and differentially...
View ArticleFirm Response to Competitive Shocks: Evidence from China’s Minimum Wage Policy
AbstractThe large regional variation in minimum wage levels during the period 2002-08 in China implies that Chinese manufacturing firms experienced competitive shocks as a function of firm location and...
View ArticleApproximate Random Allocation Mechanisms
AbstractWe generalize the scope of random allocation mechanisms, in which the mechanism first identifies a feasible “expected allocation” and then implements it by randomizing over nearby feasible...
View ArticleA Bias Bound Approach to Nonparametric Inference
AbstractThe traditional approach to obtain valid confidence intervals for nonparametric quantities is to select a smoothing parameter such that the bias of the estimator is negligible relative to its...
View ArticleHow Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?
AbstractThis paper uses a structural model to show that foreclosures played a crucial role in exacerbating the recent housing bust and to analyze foreclosure mitigation policy. We consider a dynamic...
View ArticleDiffusion of Being Pivotal and Immoral Outcomes
AbstractWe study how the diffusion of being pivotal affects immoral outcomes. In our main experiment, subjects decide about agreeing to kill mice and receiving money versus objecting to the killing and...
View ArticleThe Political Economy of Debt and Entitlements
AbstractThis paper presents a dynamic political-economic model of total government obligations. Its focus is on the interplay between debt and entitlements. In our model, both are tools by which...
View ArticleTeachers’ Pay for Performance in the Long-Run: The Dynamic Pattern of...
AbstractThis paper examines the dynamic effects of a teachers’ pay for performance experiment on long-term outcomes at adulthood. The program led to a gradual increase in university education of the...
View ArticleMacroprudential Regulation Versus Mopping Up After the Crash
AbstractHow should macroprudential policy be designed when policymakers also have access to liquidity provision tools to manage crises? We show in a tractable model of systemic banking risk that there...
View ArticleUnemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires
AbstractWe revisit the issue of the high cyclicality of wages of new hires. We show that after controlling for composition effects likely involving procyclical upgrading of job match quality, the wages...
View ArticleLong-run Effects of Lottery Wealth on Psychological Well-being
AbstractWe surveyed a large sample of Swedish lottery players about their psychological well-being 5-22 years after a major lottery event and analyzed the data following pre-registered procedures....
View ArticleThe Efficiency of Real-World Bargaining: Evidence from Wholesale Used-Auto...
AbstractThis study empirically quantifies the efficiency of a real-world bargaining game with two-sided incomplete information. Myerson and Satterthwaite (1983) and Williams (1987) derived the...
View ArticleCommitment in Organizations and the Competition for Talent
AbstractWe show that a change in organizational structure from partnerships to public companies—which weakens contractual commitment—can lead to higher investment in high return-and-risk activities,...
View ArticleCrime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity
AbstractAn increasing number of police departments use information technology (IT) to optimize patrolling strategies, yet little is known about its effectiveness in preventing crime. Based on...
View ArticlePolicy Inertia, Election Uncertainty and Incumbency Disadvantage of Political...
AbstractWe document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of “incumbency disadvantage”: If a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time, that...
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